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Apple iPhone's business has seen lower growth, but higher predictability, according to analyst Gene Munster survey responses. In a survey of 511 users, Loup Ventures found 226 iPhone users, out of which 22 percent people are planning to upgrade to a new iPhone 2018 model slated to launch this September.
The numbers compare to 23 percent when the company was expected to launch the iPhone X, and 15 percent before the iPhone was launched. Additionally, 20 percent users expect to upgrade to an iPhone 8 or iPhone X by 2019, bringing the total share up to 42 percent.
Munster believes that the iPhone growth will settle into a predictable pattern, rising between 1 to 5 percent annually.
"We expect investors will increasingly view the iPhone hardware business as a subscription business, given the upgrade patterns are becoming more predictable," Munster writes. "This is also consistent with current Street expectations of 4 percent iPhone unit growth in FY18 and 2 percent in FY19."
Notably, the survey excluded the recent rumors of a bigger sized variant of the iPhone X which is tipped to launch alongside the new iteration of the iPhone X and a lower priced LCD variant.
Previously, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple will aim to sell 100 million units of "a 6.1-inch iPhone it's planning to release this year".
"The 6.1-inch LCD iPhone will apparently resemble the iPhone X with a similar full-screen design, but at a more accessible price for customers. The analyst expects this new iPhone to be priced to replace iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, as cheap as $699," reported 9to5Mac.
What to expect
All three devices are expected to feature "Face ID" feature and lose the home button in favor of iPhone X's gestural navigation. The 6.1-inch iPhone device will not get a dual camera nor 3D Touch, according to a previous KGI report. Interestingly, other features expected to come to the iPhones are Gigabit LTE connectivity and dual SIM standby. However, we are not sure if Apple will incorporate Intel's new modems that will facilitate with this functionality.
Kuo has also estimated that Apple will ship about 18 million iPhone X units in the January-March quarter in 2018.