Report: Apple's Vision Pro Headset Expected to Have Slow Adoption

According to a report by Mark Gurman in Bloomberg's "Power On" newsletter, the Apple Vision Pro is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's business in the foreseeable future. Gurman compares the growth trajectories of various Apple products and suggests that the Vision Pro may experience a slower adoption rate.

Past Successes and Comparisons

Gurman highlights the rapid success of products like the iPhone and iPad, which quickly became significant revenue drivers for Apple. The iPhone sold a million units in under three months and accounted for one-third of Apple's overall revenue by 2009. Similarly, the iPad achieved 18% of total sales revenue within a year of its debut.

In contrast, the Apple Watch took more time to gain traction but eventually became an important part of Apple's business. Although specific Apple Watch sales figures are not disclosed, it contributes to the Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment, generating approximately $40 billion in annual revenue.

Slower Adoption Projection for Vision Pro

Gurman predicts an even slower sales trajectory for the Apple Vision Pro compared to the Apple Watch. Factors contributing to this projection include a limited release schedule, high cost (approximately ten times that of the Apple Watch), and initial availability restricted to the United States. Expansion to other countries is expected to occur months after the early 2024 launch and may not reach resellers until 2025.

Sales Projections and Challenges

Initial sales projections for the Apple Vision Pro were scaled back due to production difficulties and cost concerns. Current estimates suggest first-year sales ranging from 400,000 to 500,000 units, with an average selling price of $3,700. If Apple meets the lower-end estimate, it would generate approximately $1.5 billion in earnings in the first year.

To achieve revenue levels comparable to the iPad, Gurman suggests the headset would need to grow by 20 times and sell around 8 million units per year. However, he considers this "all but impossible" for the Apple Vision Pro in the foreseeable future, even with the potential release of a more affordable model. Gurman speculates that most consumers will likely opt for the "safer pick" of a Mac or iPad until Apple releases a version that resembles a pair of glasses.

Source

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